💸 Economy

Tariffs In Charge

The plans for US tariffs continue to change. For example, after a one month delay, 25% tariffs went into place against Canada and Mexico… until they didn’t. Shortly after going into effect, they were paused again.

The second-largest oceanic shipping company expects that the impact of escalating trade tensions will start to hit soon. Once it begins, they expect the inflationary effect will linger over the economy for at least the medium term.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates to 2.5%. The decision was said to be partially influenced by the uncertain impact of US tariffs to the European economy.

Even Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that future interest rates were going to be guided by the “net effect” of the Trump administration’s various economic policies.

At least in the short-term, the fate of the US economy seems like it’s going to be guided by the trade policies of the Trump administration.

The problem is that the rollout has been so chaotic and inconsistent, businesses will have a hard time making proper adjustments and preparations. Instead, they may decide it’s better to simply delay projects or orders until there’s more clarity. That alone can slow the economy.

Jobs In Focus

There were fewer jobs added in February than expected. The significance of that is somewhat unclear. On one hand it’s not as bad as some feared it could be.

On the other hand, it’s missing a large portion of the DOGE government layoffs. That has caused some to dismiss the report entirely. They feel that it doesn’t do anything to reflect the current state of the economy, increased government layoffs, and the declining sentiment.

🏠 Real Estate

Mortgage Demand Lurking Below The Surface?

Mortgage rates have finally budged coming down to 6.73% last week. That drop resulted in a 20% increase in people applying for mortgages.

These rates are still high compared to pre- and early-post-pandemic levels. But seeing a jump in mortgage activity with even modest drops in rates suggest there’s still a lot of housing demand. Buyers are just stuck with difficult math. They need rates or prices to budge for things to be affordable.

Without broad declines in prices, that leaves interest rates largely in control of market activity. Unfortunately rates have significant ties with inflation, tariffs, and government spending. That gives even more short- and medium-term weight to the impact of the US’s economic policies.

New CRE Debt Fund

Investment giant Blackstone is ready to go on offense on commercial real estate debt investments. They just raised an $8 Billion fund that will focus on investing in these debts across Australia, Europe, and North America.

💡 Startups

Firefly Aerospace has become the first private company to successfully land on the moon. The spacecraft delivered a payload for NASA research. This follows Intuitive Machines’ almost successful landing in 2024.

On the surface this simply represents a deepening partnership between NASA and private space companies. While that could prove lucrative for companies that can land contracts and execute successfully, it might miss the bigger picture.

What we’re really seeing is a successful decentralization of the space industry into the private sector. As the number of people and companies that have succeeded in developing spacecraft increases, the private sector will start to develop repeatable processes and expertise that can more consistently deliver success.

Right now, the long-term future of the private space industry is looking brighter. While today it might be delivering payloads to the moon, this could be a building block towards greater space industrialization. Asteroid mining, specialized manufacturing in space, and new scientific research are advancements that people are already looking to achieve in the shorter-medium term.

🎵 Music Royalties

Universal Music Group is reportedly trying to drive the development of “superfan,” premium streaming plans across the industry. They are working with all streaming services to get them to introduce higher-priced premium subscription tiers.

The idea is to both to better cater towards the most passionate music fans, while extracting more revenue from them in the process. If that is successful, it should help drive growth in royalty payments to the music industry and music rights investors.

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Sources

Economy - The Washington Post, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Fortune

Real Estate - CNBC, The Wall Street Journal

Startups - Wired

Music Royalties - Billboard