📰 This Week…

• The latest inflation data clears the way for September rate cuts.

• Why you might not want to be a home seller in Florida right now.

• Wiz says $23B isn’t enticing enough.

• The fastest growing music genre in the US may not be what you’d expect.

And so much more!

📊 Markets

• Interest Rates, Federal Funds: 5.33%

  • Next FOMC meeting starts July 30

• 30 Year Mortgage Rates: 6.78%

  • (+0.15% WoW, -1.2% MoM, -0.4% YoY)

• Single Family Home Price Index: 423.3

  • (+0% MoM, +6.3% YoY)

  • June report, data is through April

• Commercial Real Estate Index: 123.6

  • (+0.7% MoM, -5.2% YoY)

💸 Economy

Bottom Line: Inflation continues to stabilize. The economy continues to show subtle signs of underlying stress. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to start cutting interest rates at their September meeting.

• New inflation data remains calm. The PCE index showed a 2.5% yearly increase in inflation. Core PCE rose 2.6% yearly. Both numbers have stabilized significantly from a peak above 7%. (Investopedia)

• Consumer sentiment decreased slightly, month-over-month. It marks a fourth consecutive month of declines. Sentiment is back at the level of late 2023. The decrease was driven by lower income families. They are more concerned about the direction things are headed in than high-income earners. (Investopedia)

• People are struggling to save money. In June the savings rate declined to 3.4%. December of 2022 was the last time the measure was this low. It’s also a significant decline from 5 years ago with a savings rate of 7.1%. (Forbes)

• This inflation data has markets convinced that interest rate cuts will start in September. (Reuters)

🏠 Real Estate

Bottom Line: There’s a lot of divergence across real estate markets. Offices may have (finally) stabilized. Extreme-luxury property sales are having a good year. A new analysis suggests the Midwest may be the region with some of the most “value” in residential real estate. Florida home sellers are facing high rates of deals falling through and increasing inventory levels.

• CBRE Group is a publicly traded real estate firm that specializes in commercial real estate. Their stock jumped after their latest earnings report. The company believes that office real estate has stabilized. They’re actually seeing signs of strength in New York City offices. (MarketWatch)

• Sellers are having a tough time in some of Florida’s (previously) hottest markets. Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa are seeing purchase agreements fall through 21% of the time. Buyers are pulling their offers during the home inspection period. Inventory is also up 50% year-over-year in the state. (Business Insider)

• On the other hand, things are booming in high-end luxury properties. Homes valued over $100M are on pace to double this year. Even at “lower” price points of $10M - $50M, sales are up from 2023. The strong performance of the stock market is one of the factors helping these homes find buyers. (CNBC)

• Realtor.com has conducted an analysis of 200 US metropolitan areas to find their top markets of the summer. The top 10 features 7 metros from the Midwest, 2 from the Northeast, and 1 from the South. (MarketWatch)

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💡 Startups

Bottom Line: Wiz walks away from Google’s money. A few big fundraises centered around the themes of autonomous vehicles and AI. Crypto startups are benefiting a recovery in VC activity.

• Gee Wiz. It looks like Google’s attempt to acquire Wiz is dead. It seems like the cybersecurity startup may have said no to a $23B offer. They’re reportedly now focused on growing revenue and preparing the company for a future IPO. (CNN)

• Cloverleaf has raised $300M to make it easier for companies to build AI-sized data centers. The company will do the leg work of securing land, power, and permits. Afterwards a company like Microsoft can just buy and build. (Forbes)

• Applied Intuition is a software platform for other companies to use in developing their autonomous vehicle solutions. They raised $300M in funding, only 4 months after raising $250M in funding. (TechCrunch)

• Venture capital investing into crypto/blockchain startups appears to be rebounding. Q2 saw a 28% increase in invested dollars. Investors were most interested in web3 and layer 1 protocols. Startup valuations are now back up to Q4 2021 levels. (Galaxy)

• Monarch Tractor landed $133M in funding to keep their electric autonomous tractor company going. (TechCrunch)

• Revolut is looking to sell some employee shares at a $45B valuation. That would be a solid jump over their previous $33B valuation. The company is already the second most valuable fintech startup. (The Wall Street Journal)

🎵 Music Royalties

Bottom Line: Spotify’s price increases have gone well enough that more might be coming. That means more potential revenue for rights holders in future price increases. Spanish songs are growing. Latin is the US’s fastest growing genre. Mexico is the fastest growing streaming audio market. The NBA and AccuRadio are getting sued by the music industry. Sony may have the financing it needs to acquire Queen’s catalog.

• Spotify may be signaling their intent to raise prices further in the future. Based on reports from the company, consumers seem largely unbothered by the price increases implemented so far. The company also indicated that their planned “Hi-Fi” tier is still in the works. (Billboard)

• Latin is the fastest growing genre in the US. It’s followed by Rock, Pop, Country, and Christian/Gospel. All 5 “core” genres are gaining market share on streaming platforms. Mexico is also one of the fastest growing markets for streaming audio. Its share of global audio streams increased 14% from 2023. (Billboard)

• SoundExchange is suing a small online radio platform, AccuRadio. The ad-supported streaming service has allegedly stopped paying sound recording royalties since 2018. The company refutes this account. (Music Business Worldwide)

• The music industry is suing about half of the NBA. Teams including the Knicks, Timberwolves, and Suns are included in the suit. The dispute centers over the teams’ use of copyrighted music in social media posts. In order to use the music for commercial purposes, such as the promotion of a brand or team, a sync license is required. (Billboard)

• In case you were wondering, yes artists get paid royalties when their songs are used in an Olympic routine. For live broadcasts, NBC pays for a general public-performance license to the performance rights organization(s). The PROs then take care of distributing earnings to the relevant artists. Things are murkier outside of live broadcasts though. (Billboard)

• Sony Music Group has received $700M from Apollo Global Management for music acquisitions. The speculation is that this funding could be used to acquire Queen’s catalogs. (Billboard)

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